Looking Back at the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board: Who Lived Up to the Hype?

Looking back at the 2016 NBA Draft Big Board feels like revisiting a time capsule of basketball prophecy—some predictions hit the bullseye, while others remind us how unpredictable player development can be. I remember watching the draft that year, notebook in hand, tracking every pick with the kind of enthusiasm only a hoops obsessive can muster. The buzz around Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram was electric, but what fascinates me now is how certain players defied—or fulfilled—the hype in ways that still shape the league today.

Let’s start with the obvious: Ben Simmons going first overall to the Philadelphia 76ers felt like a no-brainer. At 6'10" with point guard skills, he was touted as a generational talent, and in many ways, he’s delivered. Three All-Star appearances by 2023, two All-Defensive Team nods—those aren’t flukes. But I’ve always been struck by how his game splits opinion. Offensively, his reluctance to shoot from outside has been a talking point for years, and it’s something I’ve debated with fellow analysts over coffee. Still, his career averages of around 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists per game underscore his unique versatility. On the other hand, Brandon Ingram, picked second by the Lakers, took a bit longer to find his stride. I recall watching his early struggles and wondering if he’d ever bulk up enough to handle NBA physicality. Fast-forward to today, and he’s blossomed into an All-Star and Most Improved Player in 2020, averaging over 23 points per game in recent seasons. It’s a classic case of patience paying off, something I wish more teams would embrace.

Then there’s Jaylen Brown, selected third by the Celtics. Honestly, I had my doubts early on—his shooting was inconsistent, and I wondered if he’d ever become a primary option. But boy, has he proven me wrong. Evolving into a two-way force, he’s racked up All-Star honors and, as of 2023, helped lead Boston to multiple deep playoff runs. His partnership with Jayson Tatum reminds me of how some players just click, almost like they’ve known each other from a young age, their paths to stardom unfolding in parallel. That kind of synergy isn’t something you can always predict on draft night, but when it happens, it’s magical. Speaking of hidden gems, remember Malcolm Brogdon? The 36th pick by Milwaukee flew under many radars, but I’ve always admired his steady growth. Winning Rookie of the Year in 2017 was just the start; by 2023, he’s become a reliable veteran, averaging double-digit points and earning a Sixth Man of the Year award. It goes to show that draft position isn’t everything—sometimes, the late picks bring the most value.

Of course, not every story is a triumph. Take Dragan Bender, the fourth pick by Phoenix. I had high hopes for his stretch-five potential, but he never quite adapted, bouncing between teams and putting up modest stats like 5 points per game. It’s a reminder that international prospects can be hit-or-miss, and as someone who’s scouted overseas, I’ve learned to temper expectations. Similarly, Kris Dunn, the fifth pick, showed flashes of defensive brilliance but struggled with injuries and consistency. His career trajectory—peaking with All-Defensive honors in 2020 but never becoming a star—highlights how health can make or break a prospect. On a brighter note, Domantas Sabonis, picked 11th by Orlando and traded immediately, has been a revelation. I’ve loved watching his old-school post game thrive; by 2023, he’s a multiple-time All-Star, averaging near 20 points and 12 rebounds. It makes me wonder what might have been if more teams had prioritized skill over flash.

Reflecting on all this, the 2016 draft class is a mixed bag of home runs and missed opportunities. From my perspective, the biggest lesson is that hype can set the stage, but it’s work ethic and fit that determine longevity. Players like Simmons and Ingram lived up to their top billing, albeit in different ways, while others like Brown and Sabonis exceeded expectations through sheer determination. As I wrap up, I can’t help but think how this draft shaped franchises for years—just look at the Celtics’ core or the Kings’ resurgence with Sabonis. It’s why I still get a thrill from draft analysis; the stories are always unfolding, and the next surprise is just around the corner.