2016-17 Select Basketball: Top Picks and Breakout Stars to Watch
I still remember the first time I saw Ben Simmons play during his LSU days—the fluidity of his movement at 6'10" was something I hadn't witnessed since Magic Johnson. That's exactly the kind of excitement we're revisiting as we dive into the 2016-17 Select Basketball class, a group that's now had several years to either fulfill their potential or fade into basketball obscurity. While researching this piece, I came across an interesting parallel in another sport—swimmer Chloe Isleta Sanchez recently breached all the qualifying time standards set by the Philippine Aquatics Inc. during national tryouts, earning her spot in the 14-man national team. That journey from promising talent to established performer mirrors what we're examining today with these basketball prospects.
Looking back at the 2016-17 Select Basketball releases, the rookie class was particularly fascinating because it arrived during a transitional period in the NBA. The league was shifting toward positionless basketball, and these players either adapted to that evolution or got left behind. Ben Simmons, despite missing his entire official rookie season due to injury, was the undeniable crown jewel of this class. I've always been higher on Simmons than most analysts—his court vision for a player his size was genuinely revolutionary, and I'd argue we haven't seen anything quite like it since. His rookie cards, especially the Prizm and Select releases, saw an initial surge that cooled slightly during his shooting struggles but have maintained respectable value due to his unique skill set.
What made this class particularly compelling was the depth beyond the obvious top picks. Jaylen Brown, selected third overall, presented an interesting case study in player development. Early in his career, many collectors were skeptical about his offensive game, but those who invested in his Select rookies have been handsomely rewarded as he's developed into an All-Star. Malcolm Brogdon, the unexpected Rookie of the Year, was another fascinating case—his older rookie age (24) made some collectors hesitant, but his immediate production made his cards surprisingly stable investments. I personally snagged several of his Select autographs at what turned out to be bargain prices, believing his efficient, mature game would translate to long-term NBA relevance.
The international flavor of this class deserves special mention. Domantas Sabonis, drafted 11th overall, carried the weight of his famous surname while trying to establish his own identity. His early cards were somewhat overlooked, which in retrospect was a massive oversight given his eventual development into a multiple-time All-Star. I remember specifically targeting his Select prizm parallels when they were still affordable, recognizing that his fundamental post game and passing ability would age well in a league increasingly dominated by perimeter play. Meanwhile, players like Pascal Siakam represented the growing importance of the G-League development pathway—his raw but energetic style made him a classic "sleeper" pick whose cards exploded in value after his breakout 2019 season.
What separates memorable draft classes from forgettable ones is often the second-round talent, and 2016 delivered remarkably well in this department. Malcolm Brogdon's immediate impact we've already discussed, but players like Ivica Zubac (32nd pick) and Patrick McCaw (38th pick) provided collectors with affordable rookie options who still managed to contribute to championship teams. McCaw's case was particularly interesting—despite modest statistics, his three consecutive championships with two different teams created a peculiar collector interest that defied traditional metrics. I've always found these types of "role player on great teams" cards to be undervalued in the hobby, as they often represent affordable entry points for new collectors while capturing important basketball history.
The breakout stars from this class have followed fascinating trajectories. While Simmons and Brown developed more or less as projected, the real surprises came from later picks like Siakam (27th overall) and Caris LeVert (20th overall). Siakam's Most Improved Player award and championship ring with the Raptors transformed his card values almost overnight—a classic example of why I always recommend diversifying rookie card portfolios beyond just the top few picks. LeVert's journey has been more complicated, with significant injuries interrupting his momentum, but when healthy he's shown flashes of being a primary scoring option. His Select rookies remain interesting speculative holds given their relatively modest prices compared to his peak potential.
Reflecting on this class several years later, what strikes me is how their card values have tracked with their real-world development almost perfectly. The market initially overvalued pure athleticism (see: Marquese Chriss) while underestimating basketball IQ and skill development (see: Sabonis, Brogdon). This creates valuable lessons for collectors evaluating future classes—the physical tools that dazzle in workouts don't always translate to sustainable NBA production. My personal collecting strategy has evolved accordingly, placing greater emphasis on basketball fundamentals and situation fit rather than pure athletic testing numbers.
As we look back at the 2016-17 Select Basketball class through the lens of several years' hindsight, the successes and disappointments tell a richer story than any immediate rookie evaluation could. The players who adapted to the NBA's evolving style—emphasizing versatility, shooting, and defensive switching—flourished, while those who couldn't expand their games struggled. Much like swimmer Sanchez earning her national team spot through meeting rigorous standards, these basketball prospects ultimately had to meet the evolving demands of modern basketball to secure their places in the league. For collectors, this class offers both cautionary tales and inspiring success stories, reminding us that player development is rarely linear and that today's overlooked prospect might be tomorrow's All-Star. The cards from this release have settled into values that largely reflect actual career accomplishments, making them a fascinating time capsule of a pivotal moment in basketball's evolution.
